PLTR Palantir

Signal: Mildly right — the stock traded up to +0.45% while open, consistent with the bullish call, though the move was small. Timing: Not stale — only +0.13% since prior close at decision time, so entry wasn't chasing an already-completed move. Exit: The dominant failure — the trade closed at essentially breakeven (-$0.05) despite +0.45% of favorable unrealized movement being available, capturing none of it. Bluntly: this was an exit problem; the signal did its (modest) job and the timing was fine, but the exit surrendered all available gains.

Signal: Right — the bullish repricing call played out, with the stock moving up to +4.45% unrealized and never dropping more than -0.34% against the position. Timing: Good — only +0.33% had moved since prior close at decision time, so entry was not chasing an already-completed move. Exit: Solid but not perfect — the +3.27% realized gain (+$28.50) captured roughly three-quarters of the +4.45% peak available.

Dominant factor: a correct directional signal with clean timing; the modest give-back from the high is minor by comparison. Note the data here doesn't show whether the contract news itself drove the move or something else did — only that the predicted direction materialized.

Signal: Right — the long call on the earnings beat paid off, with price closing up +3.2% from entry. Timing: The move had not already happened at entry (price was flat, -0.17% vs. prior close), so entry captured the drift as intended — though the -6.39% worst unrealized shows the position endured a severe adverse swing while open. Exit: The next-close exit captured +3.21% against a best unrealized of +4.35%, i.e., most of what was available.

Dominant factor: correct signal with a well-timed entry; the mechanical exit gave back only ~1.1pp of the peak. The data here doesn't show when the -6.39% drawdown occurred, so whether the trade was ever near a plausible stop-out can't be settled from this record.

Signal: The bullish call was directionally right in the short run — the position reached +0.92% unrealized, well above the -0.33% worst case, so upside was available.

Timing: The price context (-0.17% since prev close, +0.23% last 30m) shows no pre-entry surge, though whether the earnings pop had already been priced in on prior days can't be determined from this data.

Exit (dominant factor): The trade closed at -0.26% (-$2.30) after peaking at +0.92%, meaning the exit gave back the entire available gain and then some — the loss came from exit execution, not from a wrong directional call.

Signal (dominant factor): wrong. The bearish thesis failed — PLTR rose ~2% against the short, and the position never gained more than +0.53% while open. Timing: entry context shows only a +0.32% day-over-day move, so there's no evidence the predicted downside had already occurred; the direction simply didn't materialize. Exit: the -1.96% realized loss sits near the worst unrealized (-2.57%) rather than near the modest +0.53% peak, so the exit gave back nearly everything available, but that's secondary — with a max favorable move of only half a percent, there was little to capture even with perfect exits.

Signal: Right — the long call on positive earnings paid off, with the position closing +2.09%. Timing: The move had not already happened; price was only +0.41% off the prior close at decision time (and the fill was actually below the prior close), so entry didn't chase. Exit: Good capture — +2.09% realized against +2.67% best unrealized, so the exit got most of what was available.

Dominant factor: correct signal with efficient exit. The notable caveat is the -6.83% worst unrealized drawdown while open — the trade rode through a swing far larger than the final gain, which the fixed close-to-close rule survived by luck of the path, not by design. The data here doesn't show when in the holding period that drawdown occurred.

Signal (dominant factor): wrong. The bullish call didn't play out — PLTR fell ~1.2% from entry, and the best the trade ever saw was a modest +0.64%, so there was never a meaningful bullish move to capture during the holding period.

Timing: entry was chased. Known prices at decision were ~172.1 (prev close 172.55, down 0.49%), yet the fill came at 173.84 — roughly 0.9% above the last known price — meaning the trade bought into a pop that promptly reversed. Whether the underlying thesis had "already happened" before that isn't determinable from this data.

Exit: acceptable given the situation. The -1.18% realized sits between the best (+0.64%) and worst (-1.75%) unrealized, so the exit gave back the small peak but avoided the trough; with only +0.64% ever available, exit quality is secondary — the signal failure and the elevated fill are what drove the loss.

Signal: wrong. The predicted overnight upward drift didn't materialize — PLTR closed down ~0.5% from entry (172.80 → 171.85), so the direction was simply incorrect over the holding window.

Timing: not settled by this data. The rationale cites an earnings beat, but nothing here shows when that news was released relative to entry; the flat-to-slightly-down price context at decision time (-0.32% since prev close) is consistent with the pop having already occurred, but that's inference, not fact.

Exit: mid-range, as designed. The mechanical next-close exit landed at -0.55%, between the +1.92% best and -1.92% worst unrealized — it left the +1.92% peak uncaptured but also avoided the trough. The dominant factor is the signal: a bad directional call, with the exit rule performing neutrally given what was available.

(reflection unavailable — LLM call failed)

Signal: wrong. The trade never showed a profit (best unrealized -0.01%), so the predicted overnight drift simply didn't occur. Timing: the catalyst was stale — the rationale cites a 29% surge that had already happened, and price was already fading into entry (-0.93% on the day, -0.81% last 30m), consistent with chasing a played-out move. Exit: reasonable given the setup — the -2.36% realized loss sits between the best (-0.01%) and worst (-3.79%) unrealized, so the exit neither compounded nor rescued the trade; there was essentially no upside available to capture.

Dominant factor: bad signal from a stale news catalyst — the move was over before entry, and the position was underwater essentially the entire holding period.