verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long PLTR (other: Palantir Stock Hits New Record High, Wipes Out Its Nearly 50% Drawdown - Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PL) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long PLTR exiting 2026-10-12] → close +0.82%
overnight drift: long PLTR at close, exit next close (other: Palantir Stock Hits New Record High, Wipes Out Its Nearly 50% Drawdown - Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PL)
Signal: Wrong, or more precisely absent — the "overnight drift" thesis called for PLTR to close higher the next day, and it closed 0.08% lower (208.79 → 208.62), a flat outcome well inside normal noise. Timing: The headline (record high, drawdown erased) was already stale at entry; the stock was actually down 0.82% on the day at decision time, so the news-driven move had already played out and the trade was riding a generic momentum-continuation hope rather than a fresh catalyst. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit landed at −0.08% against a +0.87%/−1.32% unrealized range, so there was upside briefly available that the rule couldn't capture, but the data doesn't show when the high occurred, so whether a tighter exit would have caught it can't be settled here. The dominant factor is the signal: a single stale headline didn't produce a directional edge, and the round-trip was a coin flip that landed slightly red.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
