AAPL Apple

Signal: correct — the bullish call played out, with the position moving as much as +1.89% in its favor and only -0.21% against. Timing: reasonably fresh — only +0.54% had accrued since the prior close at decision time, so most of the move came after entry (though entry filled ~0.54% above prev close, a modest slippage from the decision price). Exit: captured about +1.06% of the +1.89% peak — roughly half the available move left on the table, but a solidly positive capture. Dominant factor: a correct signal executed adequately; the only real cost was an exit that gave back some of the peak, not a flaw in direction or timing.

Signal: right. The long call worked — AAPL rose ~1.56% from entry, and the worst drawdown was a trivial -0.28%.

Timing: mostly fine, small cost. Only +0.30% had moved by decision time, but the fill at 314.74 was ~0.41% above the prior close, so a modest chunk of the overnight drift was paid at entry rather than captured.

Exit: adequate, not optimal. The +1.56% realized (+$14.70) captured about two-thirds of the +2.39% peak unrealized — consistent with a mechanical next-close exit giving back some intraday high. The dominant factor is simply a correct signal; whether the news catalyst in the rationale actually drove the move can't be determined from this data.

Signal: Wrong, or at best marginal — the short only ever got +0.64% in its favor while moving −1.15% against it, so the bearish thesis didn't play out over the holding period. Timing: The stock was already down 0.92% from prior close at decision time, so part of any tariff-driven move may have been priced in, but the data here can't confirm how much of the news was already absorbed. Exit: Poor even given the weak signal — the trade closed at −0.94% (−$8.76), near the worst unrealized (−1.15%), after passing up a small available gain (+0.64%).

Dominant factor: The signal was wrong — AAPL rose while the trade was open, and the exit compounded it by realizing close to the maximum drawdown rather than the modest gain that was briefly available.

Signal: Right — the overnight drift was positive and the trade finished up (+0.32%, +$3.03). Timing: The stock had already run ~1.2% into the close before entry, so some event-announcement enthusiasm was likely priced in; whether more of the move was "used up" pre-entry can't be settled from this data alone. Exit: Good — the +0.32% realized captured most of the +0.52% best unrealized, and the fixed next-close exit avoided locking in the -1.26% worst drawdown.

Dominant factor: correct signal with near-full capture of a small available move — a working trade, just modest, with the intraday -1.26% drawdown showing the position wore meaningful risk for a small edge.

Signal (dominant factor): The bearish call was simply wrong — AAPL rose ~1.4% against the short, and the position was never meaningfully in profit (best unrealized -0.01%), so the market didn't move in the predicted direction at all.

Timing: Not the issue — price was nearly flat at entry (+0.14% since prev close, +0.06% last 30m), so the trade wasn't chasing a move that had already occurred; the anticipated decline just never materialized.

Exit: With best unrealized at -0.01%, there was essentially nothing available to capture; the exit at -1.36% was between the best and worst (-1.92%), so exit execution neither saved nor cost much relative to what was on offer. The loss is attributable to a bad directional signal, not timing or exit management.

Signal: right. The long call worked — price rose +1.14% from entry, and the trade never went meaningfully against it (worst drawdown just -0.33%). Timing: fine — despite the +0.34%/+0.50% pre-entry drift, the fill at 310.11 was actually slightly below the prior close, so the move had not already been consumed. Exit: good capture — +1.14% realized against a +1.70% peak, leaving only ~0.5% on the table, which is normal slippage for a fixed next-close exit rather than a flaw. Dominant factor: a correct directional signal; whether the M5/M6 news itself drove the move can't be settled from this data.

Signal (dominant factor): The bullish call was wrong over the holding period — the trade never went positive (best unrealized was -0.06%), so there was essentially no favorable move to capture at any point.

Timing: The move had partly happened by entry — price was already up +0.34% from prev close and +0.50% in the last 30m at decision time, and the fill at 312.66 was ~0.75% above prev close, buying into a pop that then faded.

Exit: The -0.79% realized loss sits between the best (-0.06%) and worst (-1.41%) unrealized, so the exit was middling but the range confirms there was no profit available; the loss stems from the failed signal (and chasing a stale pop), not exit execution.

Signal: Wrong over the holding window — the predicted post-earnings continuation didn't materialize; AAPL closed slightly below entry (-0.14%), and the trade never moved more than +0.88% in its favor, so there was no meaningful drift to catch.

Timing: Partially stale — the stock was already +0.77% above the prior close at entry, so some of the earnings reaction described in the rationale had been absorbed before the position opened.

Exit: The mechanical next-close exit landed near the middle of the +0.88%/-0.75% unrealized range, giving back a modest available gain, but with a range that tight the exit cost is minor. The dominant factor is signal failure: the earnings-drift thesis simply didn't produce a move after entry.

Signal: Partially right — price did move up as much as +0.60% after entry, so the bullish direction wasn't wrong, though the pre-entry context (+0.34% since prev close, flat last 30m) doesn't show a big move already priced in; whether the news was truly "fresh" can't be confirmed from this data alone.

Timing: Some drift is visible — the fill at 311.41 was ~+0.67% above prev close versus +0.34% at decision time, so roughly half the intraday gain occurred between decision and fill.

Exit: This is the dominant factor. The trade saw +0.60% unrealized upside but was closed at −0.25%, near the −0.30% worst point — the exit captured essentially the bottom of the available range and turned a correct directional call into a loss.

Signal was the failure. The bullish call didn't play out over the holding period: the stock never rose more than +0.26% before dropping, and price finished below entry. Timing wasn't the issue — the pre-entry move was negligible (+0.20% since prior close, +0.06% in the last 30m), so the trade wasn't chasing an already-completed move. The exit was middling but acceptable: the -0.48% realized loss sits between the +0.26% best and -1.26% worst unrealized, meaning there was little upside to capture and the exit avoided roughly the worst of the drawdown. Note the rationale (analyst rating/CEO succession news) can't be validated for freshness from the data here — only that the price hadn't yet moved on it at entry.