Sun Oct-18 16:25:48
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1290 Thu Jul-30 14:22:13
The bond market isn't buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling
Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields surged above 5.20% as bond investors expressed skepticism regarding Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility, signaling higher financing costs for the broader market.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -10.20% | +0.83% | 526.00 | 544.23 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +8.83% | +0.43% | 425.60 | 458.17 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -7.78% | +0.13% | 146.00 | 153.87 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.17% | +0.67% | 26.27 | 28.40 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.74% | -0.45% | 747.00 | 910.99 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.91% | +0.53% | 1599.38 | 1684.28 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.79% | +0.58% | 232.55 | 258.50 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.31% | +0.24% | 192.16 | 197.05 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.14% | +0.27% | 308.00 | 336.96 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.95% | +0.29% | 120.48 | 123.42 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.90% | +0.14% | 302.90 | 310.76 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.68% | +0.56% | 331.43 | 337.96 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.49% | +0.49% | 381.99 | 412.77 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.11% | +0.41% | 374.22 | 391.00 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.08% | +0.19% | 440.89 | 499.88 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.14% · Δ 30m +0.27% · px 336.21 (prev 340.08) → close -1.05% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.