Mon Aug-31 19:01:52
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #86 Fri Jul-17 15:00:04
Why Kimi K3 is adding to the market worries
Market concerns over Chinese AI model Kimi K3 and potential portfolio manager distress are driving a sell-off in semiconductor stocks including AMD and Micron.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.64% | +0.33% | 462.12 | 505.29 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.55% | +0.81% | 387.71 | 403.82 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.39% | -1.06% | 626.66 | 655.30 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.84% | 0.00% | 1709.45 | 1787.74 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.83% | -0.90% | 129.44 | 134.55 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.68% | -0.52% | 198.60 | 206.45 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.39% | -0.12% | 377.87 | 385.31 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.36% | -0.19% | 358.73 | 376.80 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.35% | -0.86% | 23.40 | 25.16 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | UNKNOWN | -2.12% | — | 334.74 | 350.26 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.03% | -0.57% | 389.60 | 396.89 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.60% | +0.65% | 165.27 | 172.45 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.79% | +1.32% | 244.00 | 249.74 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.75% | -0.43% | 329.44 | 334.81 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.70% | +2.97% | 808.10 | 902.11 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.64% · Δ 30m +0.33% · px 477.71 (prev 500.94) → close +4.28% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.68% · Δ 30m -0.52% · px 201.85 (prev 207.40) → close +0.81% |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: sell AMD at close, exit next close (other: Market concerns over Chinese AI model Kimi K3 and potential portfolio manager distress are driving a sell-off in semiconductor stocks including AMD and Micron.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted sell but open S4 buy AMD exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.