Mon Aug-31 19:01:49
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #72 Fri Jul-17 14:10:22
Nasdaq 100 Breakdown Shows AI Valuation Risks Are Repricing Fast
TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $60-$64 billion, triggering a global sell-off in semiconductor stocks due to concerns over AI infrastructure valuation and spending scale.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.20% | -0.61% | 387.71 | 403.82 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -11.04% | -0.37% | 23.40 | 25.16 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -9.35% | -0.23% | 462.12 | 505.29 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.81% | -0.44% | 808.10 | 902.11 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -7.42% | -0.13% | 358.73 | 376.80 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -7.07% | -0.47% | 334.74 | 350.26 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -7.01% | -0.24% | 165.27 | 172.45 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.90% | +0.01% | 198.60 | 206.45 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.86% | -0.52% | 626.66 | 655.30 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.14% | -0.41% | 1709.45 | 1787.74 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.10% | -0.76% | 244.00 | 249.74 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.90% | +0.13% | 329.44 | 334.81 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.64% | -0.29% | 389.60 | 396.89 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -6.20% · Δ 30m -0.61% · px 393.46 (prev 419.48) → close +1.23% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.90% · Δ 30m +0.01% · px 202.09 (prev 212.50) → close +0.69% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: sell TSM at close, exit next close (guidance: TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $60-$64 billion, triggering a global sell-off in semiconductor stocks due to concerns over AI infrastructure valuation and spending scale.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 sell TSM exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.