Mon Aug-31 19:01:47
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🚨 Alert #73 Fri Jul-17 14:10:22
TSMC Plans Up To 12 Arizona Chip Factories, But You Should Be Skeptical
TSMC plans to expand its Arizona manufacturing footprint to up to 12 facilities with an additional $100 billion investment, potentially benefiting domestic supply chains for customers like Apple.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -6.20% | -0.61% | 387.71 | 403.82 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | PRICED | -11.04% | -0.37% | 23.40 | 25.16 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -9.35% | -0.23% | 462.12 | 505.29 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -8.81% | -0.44% | 808.10 | 902.11 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -7.42% | -0.13% | 358.73 | 376.80 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | PRICED | -7.01% | -0.24% | 165.27 | 172.45 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | -4.90% | +0.01% | 198.60 | 206.45 | |
| counterparty AAPL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.90% | +0.13% | 329.44 | 334.81 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -6.20% · Δ 30m -0.61% · px 393.46 (prev 419.48) → close +1.23% |
| S2 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.90% · Δ 30m +0.13% · px 333.73 (prev 327.50) → close -0.02% |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +0.69% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy TSM at close, exit next close (other: TSMC plans to expand its Arizona manufacturing footprint to up to 12 facilities with an additional $100 billion investment, potentially benefiting domestic supply chains for customers like Apple.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted buy but open S4 sell TSM exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.