nytimes.com · Fri Jul-24 13:14:19 published · Fri Jul-24 13:32:20 alerted · alerted 18m after publish · read at www.nytimes.com ↗ · regulatory · mat 65
The Trump administration has implemented new tariffs of at least 10 percent on imports from over 80 countries, raising concerns about global trade relationships and economic impact.
verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell AAPL (regulatory: The Trump administration has implemented new tariffs of at least 10 percent on imports from over 80 countries, raising concerns about global trade relationships and economic impact.)
Retro note: The entry shorted AAPL on broad macro tariff news that wasn't AAPL-specific, and the market had likely already priced it in — the position was underwater almost immediately (max favorable move a trivial +0.06%, max drawdown -2.85%) before closing at a -2.57% loss. The "FRESH" verdict clearly didn't correlate with actual price reaction, meaning the news was stale or discounted by the time of entry.
Improvement: Require price confirmation before acting on macro-level catalysts — e.g., only enter a bearish trade if the ticker is trading below its prior session low or VWAP at entry time — or tighten the FRESH threshold to exclude multi-day policy stories that headlines recycle. A story about tariffs on 80 countries is not a fresh AAPL signal; treat broad regulatory news as a filter, not a trigger.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
