🚨 Alert #3938 Thu Sep-03 13:21:45
The Trump administration is considering new semiconductor tariffs that would penalize overseas production while offering relief to companies manufacturing in the US, raising concerns about supply chain costs and global trade dynamics.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.71% | -0.02% | 408.61 | 417.19 | |
| peer AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.70% | -0.17% | 340.52 | 358.96 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.06% | -0.30% | 1626.20 | 1659.83 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.90% | +0.02% | 36.14 | 38.19 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.30% | -0.01% | 165.14 | 169.97 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.91% | -0.13% | 444.32 | 459.53 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.80% | +0.05% | 927.46 | 959.36 | |
| PLTR | · unclear | FRESH | +0.80% | +0.21% | 170.39 | 185.21 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.75% | +0.06% | 596.59 | 618.72 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.68% | +0.10% | 482.28 | 515.00 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.39% | -0.02% | 223.46 | 230.14 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.34% | -0.08% | 323.67 | 330.62 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.26% | -0.04% | 337.90 | 344.36 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.19% | +0.05% | 255.30 | 259.49 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSM (regulatory: The Trump administration is considering new semiconductor tariffs that would penalize overseas production while offering relief to companies manufacturing in the US, raising concerns about supply chain costs and global trade dynamics.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 long TSM decision 15953] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -3.70% · Δ 30m -0.17% · px 353.64 (prev 367.24) → close +1.01% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: The Trump administration is considering new semiconductor tariffs that would penalize overseas production while offering relief to companies manufacturing in the US, raising concerns about supply chain costs and global trade dynamics.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 75 long (decision 15956) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-09-04] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▼ short | 2 | 410.58 | 413.11 | -5.06 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.61% | -0.71% | Signal: Wrong over the holding period — TSM rose after the short entry (410.58 → 413.11), and the -0.62% realized loss sits near the worst unrealized (-0.71%), so the bearish tariff thesis didn't play out while the position was open. Timing: The stock was only down -0.71% from prior close at entry with a flat last 30 minutes, so the move hadn't meaningfully happened yet — this wasn't a chase; the direction was simply wrong (at least on this horizon). Exit: The trade briefly showed +0.61% but was closed near its worst point, and not on merit — it was mechanically netted out by a higher-ranked long TSM decision. The dominant factor is the bad directional signal, but note the exit was forced by an internal conflict (the system held opposing views on the same ticker), so this exit tells us little about what the short thesis would have captured if held. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.