Wed Sep-02 02:46:22
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3758 Tue Sep-01 15:11:56
Fed Rate Hike at 68% Odds Opens Five-Day Window for Variable-Rate Borrowers
Rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike and increasing Treasury yields create macroeconomic headwinds for high-growth technology stocks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.38% | +0.09% | 162.70 | 168.42 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.59% | +0.01% | 35.84 | 37.68 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.82% | +0.54% | 453.00 | 463.28 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.41% | +1.43% | 353.30 | 364.13 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.23% | -0.29% | 253.71 | 257.52 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.12% | -0.46% | 1653.39 | 1685.46 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.98% | +1.66% | 315.79 | 326.96 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.88% | +0.46% | 924.44 | 966.36 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.28% | +0.75% | 362.80 | 371.68 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.17% | +0.89% | 215.73 | 220.15 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.90% | +0.41% | 328.75 | 338.28 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.87% | +1.02% | 558.35 | 584.48 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.64% | +0.50% | 466.45 | 504.64 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.62% | +1.09% | 179.05 | 186.12 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.04% | -0.01% | 412.33 | 417.45 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | inferred short contradicts tape: AAPL +1.98% since prev close → close +0.46% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.