🚨 Alert #3310 Wed Aug-26 13:01:04
Global AI venture capital investment reached a record $430 billion in the first half of 2026, with hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta projected to spend up to $520 billion on AI infrastructure this year.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AMZN | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.26% | -0.01% | 258.35 | 262.85 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.39% | -0.22% | 563.60 | 597.00 | |
| PLTR | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.03% | -0.15% | 170.23 | 179.51 | |
| peer MSFT | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.75% | -0.08% | 487.23 | 498.25 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.73% | -0.79% | 37.05 | 38.59 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.57% | -0.35% | 919.61 | 976.50 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.52% | -0.06% | 350.42 | 362.13 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.44% | -0.76% | 473.00 | 490.04 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.42% | -0.30% | 414.93 | 424.90 | |
| TSLA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.32% | -0.31% | 343.38 | 350.50 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.20% | -0.19% | 158.86 | 164.92 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.07% | -0.12% | 1732.77 | 1785.00 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.05% | -0.04% | 340.28 | 347.50 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.02% | +0.07% | 309.37 | 315.24 | |
| NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.01% | -0.23% | 206.48 | 220.50 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMZN (other: Global AI venture capital investment reached a record $430 billion in the first half of 2026, with hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta projected to spend up to $520 billion on AI infrastructure this year.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +1.78% |
| S4 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AMZN at close, exit next close (other: Global AI venture capital investment reached a record $430 billion in the first half of 2026, with hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta projected to spend up to $520 billion on AI infrastructure this year.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 13456) for S4 AMZN exiting 2026-08-27] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▲ long | 3 | 260.48 | 260.38 | -0.30 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | +0.26% | -0.85% | Signal (dominant factor): The bullish call didn't play out — AMZN went nowhere and drifted slightly negative, with the worst unrealized (-0.85%) roughly 3x the best (+0.26%). A broad, macro-scale AI capex headline is not the kind of stock-specific catalyst that produced a directional move here; the predicted direction simply didn't materialize during the holding period. Timing: No evidence the move had already happened — price was only +0.26% since prior close and flat over the last 30 minutes at decision time, so the trade wasn't chasing a spike. Exit: The near-flat exit (-0.30 USD, ~-0.04%) captured close to the best of a bad situation — it missed the small +0.26% peak but avoided most of the -0.85% drawdown. The loss is attributable to the signal producing no move, not to poor exit execution. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.