🚨 Alert #3309 Wed Aug-26 13:00:37
China's Moonshot is reportedly in discussions with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google regarding revenue sharing agreements for its K3 AI model.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MSFT (partnership: China's Moonshot is reportedly in discussions with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google regarding revenue sharing agreements for its K3 AI model.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S2 short MSFT decision 13498] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | META | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for META → close +0.03% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (partnership: China's Moonshot is reportedly in discussions with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google regarding revenue sharing agreements for its K3 AI model.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 13452) for S4 MSFT exiting 2026-08-27] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ▲ long | 2 | 492.47 | 495.71 | +6.48 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT S1 | +0.84% | +0.03% | Signal: right. The bullish call worked — the trade never went underwater (worst unrealized +0.03%) and price rose from entry. Timing: fine. Price was down -0.75% on the day and flat over the prior 30 minutes at decision time, so the move had not already run before entry. Exit: mostly captured, but for an unrelated reason. The close netted +0.66% versus a best unrealized of +0.84%, so roughly three-quarters of the available move was banked — yet the exit was administrative (netted out against an outranking short decision), not a judgment on this trade. The dominant factor is a correct signal; the exit quality here is essentially incidental, since the close timing wasn't driven by this trade's thesis. Whether holding longer would have done better isn't knowable from this data. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.