kingfisher — alert #31

🚨 Alert #31 Thu Jul-16 19:50:25

Nasdaq 100 Slides as TSMC Results Revives AI Spending Concerns

financialpost.com · Thu Jul-16 19:46:24 published · Thu Jul-16 19:50:25 alerted · alerted 4m after publish · read at financialpost.com ↗ · earnings · mat 65

TSMC raised its 2026 sales and spending guidance but chip and AI-related stocks sold off broadly amid renewed AI-spending concerns and Middle East tensions, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 4.2%.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary TSM	· unclear	PRICED	-3.41%	-0.16%	398.04	415.14
SMCI	▼ bearish	PRICED	-6.94%	+0.24%	24.62	26.59
AMD	▼ bearish	PRICED	-6.41%	-0.39%	492.08	516.11
peer MU	▼ bearish	PRICED	-6.17%	-0.90%	830.40	877.23
AVGO	▼ bearish	PRICED	-4.50%	-0.15%	372.51	388.50
QCOM	▼ bearish	PRICED	-3.97%	-0.13%	169.18	174.90
GOOGL	▼ bearish	PRICED	-3.32%	-1.23%	352.84	377.88
NVDA	▼ bearish	PRICED	-2.47%	+0.07%	205.56	210.73
MSFT	▼ bearish	PRICED	+2.27%	+0.01%	392.23	405.36
META	▼ bearish	PRICED	-1.88%	-0.16%	660.85	684.09
AAPL	▼ bearish	REPRICING	+1.62%	+0.71%	327.18	335.00
ASML	▼ bearish	PRICED	-1.10%	-0.13%	1765.85	1850.49
TSLA	▼ bearish	FRESH	-0.92%	+0.28%	385.51	394.49
AMZN	▼ bearish	FRESH	-0.76%	-0.26%	248.68	257.44
PLTR	▼ bearish	FRESH	+0.10%	-0.06%	129.37	135.18

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	TSM	○ skip	—	direction unclear for TSM → close +1.04%
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	MU	○ skip	—	verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -6.17% · Δ 30m -0.90% · px 848.49 (prev 904.28) → close +0.62%
S4	TSM	○ skip	—	direction unclear for TSM

📈 Trades

no trades spawned

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.