overnight drift: sell AAPL at close, exit next close (guidance: Apple has reportedly cut standard iPhone 17 production by about one-third due to rising component costs amid AI-driven chip demand pressures.)
The entry thesis (bearish supply-cut headline → overnight drift lower) didn't hold to the exit: the stock finished slightly higher and you ate a small loss, even though the trade was up +1.26% at some point intra-hold — meaning the signal had a kernel of truth but the fixed next-close exit gave it all back. That's the classic flaw of headline-driven shorts: the news impact decays fast and reverses once priced in. Concrete fix: replace the rigid "exit next close" rule with a take-profit around +1% (roughly your observed max favorable excursion) or exit at next open, since holding a stale news short through a full session is where the edge died.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
