Mon Aug-31 19:04:11
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2987 Thu Aug-20 20:30:37
The bond market is going to burst the stock-market bubble
An opinion piece argues that rising long-term interest rates and overextended valuations in the AI sector signal an imminent stock market bubble burst.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.10% | +0.34% | 215.96 | 219.30 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.17% | +0.92% | 921.76 | 974.69 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.19% | +0.05% | 339.13 | 349.70 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.68% | +0.19% | 260.11 | 266.47 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.10% | -0.53% | 311.30 | 318.51 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.08% | +0.24% | 338.89 | 344.30 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.85% | +0.02% | 408.14 | 417.74 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.79% | -0.36% | 160.18 | 164.99 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.57% | +0.46% | 539.90 | 549.79 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.53% | +0.24% | 360.86 | 366.52 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.44% | -0.01% | 479.99 | 485.50 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.33% | -0.72% | 35.67 | 38.25 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.21% | +0.19% | 1740.30 | 1770.83 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.19% | +0.42% | 460.46 | 471.93 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.04% | +0.27% | 172.20 | 176.01 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (other: An opinion piece argues that rising long-term interest rates and overextended valuations in the AI sector signal an imminent stock market bubble burst.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long NVDA, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -0.39% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.58% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short NVDA at close, exit next close (other: An opinion piece argues that rising long-term interest rates and overextended valuations in the AI sector signal an imminent stock market bubble burst.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 75 long (decision 11888) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-08-21] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.