Mon Aug-31 19:04:18
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2771 Mon Aug-17 18:50:45
Historic data indicates AI market correction is likely: ECB blog
The European Central Bank warned that a market correction in U.S. technology stocks is likely due to excessive valuations driven by AI optimism.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.46% | +0.08% | 303.11 | 307.47 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.65% | -0.75% | 993.78 | 1034.28 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.62% | -0.07% | 37.80 | 39.98 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.20% | -0.30% | 564.85 | 589.21 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.25% | -0.07% | 478.70 | 492.54 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.32% | +0.28% | 1865.26 | 1895.66 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.12% | +0.06% | 157.53 | 167.50 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.56% | -0.08% | 258.47 | 266.57 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.17% | -0.03% | 427.86 | 435.39 | |
| peer AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.86% | -0.09% | 391.64 | 398.50 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.78% | -0.08% | 505.25 | 521.14 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.75% | -0.14% | 342.17 | 348.42 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.71% | +0.05% | 337.84 | 343.13 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.44% | +0.07% | 224.91 | 227.78 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.13% | -0.04% | 171.25 | 176.07 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AAPL (analyst: The European Central Bank warned that a market correction in U.S. technology stocks is likely due to excessive valuations driven by AI optimism.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short AAPL exiting 2026-08-17] → close +0.33% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -1.19% |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short AAPL at close, exit next close (analyst: The European Central Bank warned that a market correction in U.S. technology stocks is likely due to excessive valuations driven by AI optimism.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 short (decision 10972) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-08-18] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.