Mon Aug-31 19:01:55
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #233 Mon Jul-20 14:52:03
Alphabet Earnings This Week May Determine the Fate of the AI Trade
Alphabet's upcoming earnings report is positioned as a critical test for the sustainability of the AI trade, with potential implications for semiconductor suppliers and broader tech sentiment.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary GOOGL | · unclear | PRICED | +3.09% | +2.19% | 347.73 | 359.49 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | +4.30% | +0.19% | 859.68 | 900.06 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | +3.75% | -0.94% | 502.09 | 525.31 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | +2.04% | +0.24% | 374.54 | 383.41 | |
| counterparty TSM | · unclear | PRICED | +1.85% | -0.50% | 390.66 | 409.60 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | +1.69% | +0.40% | 202.33 | 207.26 | |
| AAPL | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.15% | -0.78% | 324.24 | 333.43 | |
| ASML | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.89% | -0.99% | 1730.44 | 1791.62 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.77% | -1.29% | 170.05 | 176.17 | |
| META | · unclear | FRESH | -0.70% | -0.40% | 637.32 | 678.03 | |
| MSFT | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.65% | +0.61% | 388.63 | 402.83 | |
| PLTR | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.64% | +2.34% | 127.77 | 136.25 | |
| peer TSLA | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.11% | -1.15% | 369.42 | 386.08 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.06% | -1.80% | 23.83 | 24.95 |
🧭 Decisions
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.