Mon Aug-31 20:01:01
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #216 Mon Jul-20 14:00:04
Wall Street's Patience Runs Thin
Investor sentiment has turned negative toward semiconductor stocks despite strong earnings from ASML and TSMC, while capital rotates toward Apple.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.39% | -0.01% | 1730.44 | 1791.62 | |
| peer AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.86% | +2.15% | 502.09 | 525.31 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.58% | -0.76% | 859.68 | 900.06 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.95% | +0.03% | 127.77 | 136.25 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.89% | -0.32% | 388.63 | 402.83 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.73% | +0.09% | 170.05 | 176.17 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.66% | -0.05% | 637.32 | 678.03 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.59% | +0.18% | 347.73 | 359.49 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.09% | +1.34% | 23.83 | 24.95 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.70% | +0.11% | 246.72 | 252.85 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.68% | 0.00% | 202.33 | 207.26 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.58% | +0.06% | 374.54 | 383.41 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.37% | -0.11% | 390.66 | 409.60 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.21% | +0.10% | 324.24 | 333.43 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell ASML (other: Investor sentiment has turned negative toward semiconductor stocks despite strong earnings from ASML and TSMC, while capital rotates toward Apple.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.86% · Δ 30m +2.15% · px 525.31 (prev 500.94) → close -3.78% |
| S4 | ASML | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: sell ASML at close, exit next close (other: Investor sentiment has turned negative toward semiconductor stocks despite strong earnings from ASML and TSMC, while capital rotates toward Apple.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted sell but open S4 buy ASML exiting 2026-07-21] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ▼ short | 1 | failed |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.