Mon Aug-31 20:13:22
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1539 Fri Jul-31 15:34:25
AI Infrastructure's Trillion-Dollar Off-Balance Sheet Bet - Environment+Energy Leader
Moody's reports that Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and CoreWeave have collectively committed to $1.2 trillion in off-balance-sheet data center lease obligations, raising concerns about hidden leverage in AI infrastructure spending.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +14.60% | +0.43% | 259.40 | 272.46 | |
| peer AAPL | · unclear | PRICED | -9.26% | +0.19% | 300.32 | 309.72 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.14% | +0.45% | 337.16 | 357.61 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -2.74% | +0.40% | 812.48 | 926.39 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | PRICED | -1.94% | +0.47% | 146.24 | 155.18 | |
| PLTR | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.46% | -0.94% | 119.91 | 123.66 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | +1.43% | +0.44% | 472.12 | 514.65 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.43% | +0.64% | 540.82 | 557.98 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -1.32% | -0.38% | 380.52 | 397.37 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | +1.03% | +0.30% | 195.33 | 201.78 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.42% | -1.21% | 447.95 | 465.86 | |
| TSM | · unclear | FRESH | +0.40% | +0.36% | 399.15 | 421.17 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.29% | -0.79% | 27.36 | 28.78 | |
| ASML | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.20% | +0.97% | 1622.50 | 1691.03 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +14.60% · Δ 30m +0.43% · px 269.89 (prev 235.50) → close +0.95% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AAPL → close +2.37% |
| S4 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +14.60% · Δ 30m +0.43% · px 269.89 (prev 235.50) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.