🚨 Alert #1540 Fri Jul-31 15:40:38
Tesla filed an emergency federal lawsuit against supplier Angstrom Automotive Group to recover proprietary tooling and components, warning that Cybertruck production could halt within days.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short TSLA (regulatory: Tesla filed an emergency federal lawsuit against supplier Angstrom Automotive Group to recover proprietary tooling and components, warning that Cybertruck production could halt within days.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSLA at close, exit next close (regulatory: Tesla filed an emergency federal lawsuit against supplier Angstrom Automotive Group to recover proprietary tooling and components, warning that Cybertruck production could halt within days.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 short (decision 6300) for S4 TSLA exiting 2026-08-03] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▼ short | 3 | 305.89 | 312.84 | -20.85 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | +0.15% | -2.31% | Signal: Wrong. The stock rallied against the short almost the entire hold — the best unrealized gain was a mere +0.15%, so the bearish repricing thesis never materialized in the position's lifetime. Timing: Possibly a contributor: the stock was already down -0.94% from the prior close at decision time and was bouncing (+0.90% in the last 30m), consistent with entering after the news-driven drop had occurred — though the data here can't confirm how much of the move preceded the article. Exit: The exit at -2.27% is near the worst unrealized (-2.31%), but with only +0.15% ever available, the exit gave up almost nothing that existed to capture. Dominant factor: signal failure — the predicted downside simply never came. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.