Sun Oct-18 16:26:39
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1181 Wed Jul-29 18:00:26
Pax Silica: US Strategy to Secure AI's $750B Supply Chain
The US State Department launched the Pax Silica initiative to secure AI and semiconductor supply chains by aligning trusted international partners and reducing reliance on Chinese rare earth elements.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.55% | +0.18% | 188.89 | 197.56 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -6.01% | +0.17% | 25.22 | 28.35 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -5.70% | -0.18% | 708.59 | 835.51 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -5.20% | +0.25% | 420.63 | 458.46 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -3.52% | +0.28% | 368.30 | 390.77 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.20% | -0.36% | 143.70 | 164.29 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.05% | +0.47% | 1531.35 | 1613.00 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.61% | +0.28% | 364.85 | 384.61 | |
| PLTR | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.17% | +0.15% | 120.59 | 126.93 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.87% | +0.32% | 329.81 | 342.09 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.52% | -0.02% | 389.74 | 425.60 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.40% | +0.33% | 224.70 | 232.52 | |
| peer AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.37% | +0.04% | 337.73 | 344.32 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.07% | +0.35% | 521.74 | 599.09 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.55% · Δ 30m +0.18% · px 191.99 (prev 197.01) → close -0.71% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (regulatory: The US State Department launched the Pax Silica initiative to secure AI and semiconductor supply chains by aligning trusted international partners and reducing reliance on Chinese rare earth elements.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S2 long AAPL exiting 2026-07-29] → close -0.82% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.55% · Δ 30m +0.18% · px 191.99 (prev 197.01) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.