Mon Aug-31 20:08:22
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1182 Wed Jul-29 18:01:02
In the Chip War, Export Bans Have Worked. But We're Still Losing Ground
An analysis highlights that while EUV export bans on China have held, the continued availability of older ASML DUVi lithography machines is enabling Chinese firms to narrow the AI hardware gap, posing a long-term competitive threat to the global semiconductor supply chain.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.05% | +0.47% | 1531.35 | 1613.00 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.70% | -0.18% | 708.59 | 835.51 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.20% | +0.25% | 420.63 | 458.46 | |
| peer TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.52% | +0.28% | 368.30 | 390.77 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.55% | +0.18% | 188.89 | 197.56 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.20% | -0.36% | 143.70 | 164.29 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.61% | +0.28% | 364.85 | 384.61 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.05% · Δ 30m +0.47% · px 1550.54 (prev 1582.95) → close +0.53% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -3.52% · Δ 30m +0.28% · px 378.48 (prev 392.31) → close -0.94% |
| S4 | ASML | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.05% · Δ 30m +0.47% · px 1550.54 (prev 1582.95) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.