Mon Aug-31 19:08:56
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1154 Wed Jul-29 16:03:25
Dow slumps 700 points, oil jumps over 6% after Trump vows to give Iran 'beating' following surprise attacks
US stocks declined and oil prices surged following President Trump's vow to retaliate against Iran, causing significant drops in semiconductor stocks including AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.76% | -0.23% | 420.63 | 458.46 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.65% | +0.62% | 25.22 | 28.35 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.04% | -0.47% | 708.59 | 835.51 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.19% | -0.21% | 368.30 | 390.77 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.30% | +0.36% | 188.89 | 197.56 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.78% | +0.36% | 1531.35 | 1613.00 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.71% | +0.67% | 143.70 | 164.29 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.46% | -0.31% | 293.83 | 308.84 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.31% | +0.06% | 224.70 | 232.52 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.10% | +0.27% | 364.85 | 384.61 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.95% | +0.34% | 120.59 | 126.93 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.77% | -0.09% | 521.74 | 599.09 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.22% | +0.11% | 389.74 | 425.60 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.16% | +0.33% | 329.81 | 342.09 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.09% | -0.31% | 337.73 | 344.32 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.76% · Δ 30m -0.23% · px 432.99 (prev 454.62) → close -0.23% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AAPL (other: US stocks declined and oil prices surged following President Trump's vow to retaliate against Iran, causing significant drops in semiconductor stocks including AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S2 long AAPL, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -0.54% |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.76% · Δ 30m -0.23% · px 432.99 (prev 454.62) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.