Mon Aug-31 20:11:15
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1155 Wed Jul-29 16:11:33
Microsoft's Earnings Could Decide the Fate of a $700 Billion AI Spending Boom
Microsoft's upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report is viewed as a critical event that will determine the trajectory of the $700 billion AI infrastructure spending boom and impact the broader semiconductor supply chain.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | · unclear | FRESH | +0.58% | +0.44% | 389.74 | 425.60 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | PRICED | -4.89% | +0.48% | 25.22 | 28.35 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -4.69% | +0.51% | 420.63 | 458.46 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -3.98% | +0.49% | 708.59 | 835.51 | |
| TSM | · unclear | PRICED | -3.35% | -0.03% | 368.30 | 390.77 | |
| counterparty NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | -2.09% | +0.79% | 188.89 | 197.56 | |
| ASML | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.60% | +0.92% | 1531.35 | 1613.00 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.44% | +1.52% | 143.70 | 164.29 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | PRICED | -1.08% | +0.40% | 224.70 | 232.52 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.86% | +0.95% | 364.85 | 384.61 | |
| peer GOOGL | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.51% | +0.76% | 329.81 | 342.09 | |
| META | · unclear | FRESH | -0.48% | +0.16% | 521.74 | 599.09 |
🧭 Decisions
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.