verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (earnings: TSMC strikes cautious tone on 2027 after posting sixth straight quarter of record profit) [closed early: netted out by outranking S3 short AAPL decision 30283]
Signal: wrong. AAPL never got going after entry — best unrealized was only +0.05% and it spent the trade drifting to -0.72% — so the bullish read off a TSMC article that itself carried a "cautious tone on 2027" didn't play out; the rationale's directional link to AAPL is thin to begin with. Timing: already stretched. The stock was +0.74% vs prior close at decision time, and the fill at 347.08 was ~+1.2% over the 342.96 close, meaning roughly 0.45% of adverse slippage between decision and fill on top of a move that had largely happened. Exit: captured essentially the worst available — -0.71% realized versus -0.72% trough — but this was a forced net-out against an outranking S3 short (decision 30283), not a strategy-driven exit, so the data doesn't show whether holding would have recovered anything. Dominant factor: the signal was simply wrong; the fill slippage and bottom-tick forced exit made a bad call marginally worse.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.