Signal: Direction was right — AAPL fell ~0.6% after the short — but the rationale cites Bumble and Anthropic headlines with no stated connection to Apple, so the data here gives no reason to credit the thesis; the win looks like coincidence with intraday drift from a +0.5%-on-day level, not a validated bearish read. Timing: Entry at 344.6 was essentially at the decision-time price (prev close 342.96 +0.5%, flat last 30m), so the drop had not already happened; the short was placed near the local high, which is fine. Exit: Captured +0.59% of a +0.83% best unrealized against only -0.17% worst, so the exit took roughly 70% of what was available — the dominant factor is a sound-looking outcome built on an irrelevant news trigger, which the P&L should not be taken to vindicate.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
