🚨 Alert #7615 Fri Oct-16 13:00:29
Taiwan Semiconductor Holds the Cards As NVIDIA, Apple and AMD Battle for Limited AI Chip Capacity
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: Taiwan Semiconductor Holds the Cards As NVIDIA, Apple and AMD Battle for Limited AI Chip Capacity) |
| S2 | AAPL | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AAPL (earnings: Taiwan Semiconductor Holds the Cards As NVIDIA, Apple and AMD Battle for Limited AI Chip Capacity) |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: Taiwan Semiconductor Holds the Cards As NVIDIA, Apple and AMD Battle for Limited AI Chip Capacity) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (-2.04% since close, 474m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 417.62 | 413.82 | -7.60 | closed |
| S2 | AAPL | ▼ short | 2 | 345.67 | 343.17 | +5.00 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | -0.03% | -1.66% | Signal was wrong: the bullish call on TSM's AI-capacity leverage never produced upside — the best unrealized was -0.03%, so price was never above entry while open, and it closed at 413.82 for -0.91%. Timing is the dominant factor in a specific sense: the stock was already soft (prev close 422.23, -0.38% at decision, then filled at 417.62, roughly 1.1% below prev close), meaning the "FRESH" verdict was being faded by the tape before entry even completed, though this data can't settle whether the article was actually stale news. Exit was reasonable given what was available — -0.91% landed between the -0.03% best and -1.66% worst, so the exit neither captured gains (none existed) nor rode the full drawdown. |
| AAPL S2 | +1.49% | -0.49% | Signal: right. AAPL fell after the short was placed, so the bearish call paid off, though the article (TSMC capacity constraints across NVIDIA/Apple/AMD) is a thin, indirect link to Apple specifically and nothing here shows the move was driven by that story. Timing: the predicted move had not already happened — at decision time AAPL was only +0.36% vs. prior close (~343.2), and the fill at 345.67 (+1.08% vs. 341.98) was actually ~0.7% higher than the decision-time price, a favorable fill for a short; the data doesn't explain that gap between decision and fill. Exit is the dominant factor: the realized +0.72% (+5.00 on 2 shares) captured only about half of the +1.49% best unrealized, against a minor -0.49% worst, so the trade was correct but left roughly half the available gain on the table. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.