Mon Aug-31 19:04:07
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #998 Tue Jul-28 15:21:44
FOMC July 29: Fed Holds, September Hike Odds at 77%
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady in July, but markets are pricing in a 77% probability of a rate hike by September, creating a hawkish backdrop for leveraged AI and tech stocks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -12.13% | -3.36% | 774.65 | 848.99 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -10.29% | -3.17% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -9.50% | -0.57% | 117.98 | 128.50 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.47% | -1.60% | 27.27 | 28.69 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.01% | -1.42% | 1555.72 | 1598.06 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.16% | -1.41% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.78% | -0.23% | 162.26 | 167.70 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.47% | -1.63% | 301.59 | 309.83 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.28% | -0.72% | 360.53 | 385.19 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.01% | +0.80% | 391.72 | 399.95 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.68% | -0.55% | 193.21 | 198.53 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.46% | +0.17% | 228.16 | 234.02 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.27% | +0.66% | 325.28 | 335.89 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.16% | -0.25% | 335.94 | 341.25 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.06% | +0.20% | 587.04 | 600.38 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AAPL (other: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady in July, but markets are pricing in a 77% probability of a rate hike by September, creating a hawkish backdrop for leveraged AI and tech stocks.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short AAPL exiting 2026-07-28] → close +0.71% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.