Mon Aug-31 19:05:58
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #972 Tue Jul-28 13:51:47
Is this DeepSeek 2.0?
A Chinese AI lab released the open-source Kimi K3 model, triggering a sector-wide sell-off in AI stocks and causing Nvidia to briefly lose its top market cap position to Apple.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.44% | -0.04% | 193.21 | 198.53 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -10.22% | -0.05% | 1555.72 | 1598.06 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -9.09% | +0.37% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.69% | +0.15% | 774.65 | 848.99 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.84% | -0.19% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.74% | +0.64% | 27.27 | 28.69 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.65% | +0.20% | 391.72 | 399.95 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.14% | +0.08% | 117.98 | 128.50 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.54% | +0.24% | 325.28 | 335.89 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.86% | +0.13% | 335.94 | 341.25 | |
| peer AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.43% | +0.38% | 360.53 | 385.19 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.83% | +0.39% | 587.04 | 600.38 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.44% | +0.39% | 162.26 | 167.70 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.41% | -0.17% | 228.16 | 234.02 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -5.44% · Δ 30m -0.04% · px 195.59 (prev 206.84) → close +1.07% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.43% · Δ 30m +0.38% · px 376.47 (prev 381.92) → close +1.93% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -5.44% · Δ 30m -0.04% · px 195.59 (prev 206.84) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.