Mon Aug-31 20:13:45
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #961 Tue Jul-28 13:30:41
Nvidia bets $5B on AI, so why is the stock falling
Nvidia's stock declined amid a broader semiconductor sector selloff despite announcing a $5 billion investment in AI startup Safe Superintelligence.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.32% | +0.17% | 193.21 | 198.53 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -10.48% | -0.67% | 1555.72 | 1598.06 | |
| peer AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.97% | +0.34% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.46% | +0.42% | 774.65 | 848.99 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.95% | +0.21% | 27.27 | 28.69 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.69% | +0.10% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.64% | +0.31% | 391.72 | 399.95 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.88% | +0.42% | 117.98 | 128.50 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.66% | +0.22% | 325.28 | 335.89 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.80% | +0.14% | 335.94 | 341.25 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.42% | +0.29% | 360.53 | 385.19 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.73% | +0.27% | 228.16 | 234.02 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.64% | +0.26% | 587.04 | 600.38 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.40% | +0.51% | 162.26 | 167.70 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -5.32% · Δ 30m +0.17% · px 195.84 (prev 206.84) → close +0.94% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -8.97% · Δ 30m +0.34% · px 475.12 (prev 521.95) → close -4.04% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -5.32% · Δ 30m +0.17% · px 195.84 (prev 206.84) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.