Mon Aug-31 19:01:46
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #830 Mon Jul-27 13:53:02
Moonshot's Kimi K3, the Chinese AI model spooking Silicon Valley
Chinese startup Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, a powerful and cheaper open-weight AI model that outperforms key US rivals in benchmarks, triggering a negative market reaction for US tech stocks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.70% | +0.15% | 386.36 | 393.98 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.31% | +0.33% | 858.59 | 947.60 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.84% | -0.09% | 333.66 | 339.17 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.21% | +0.19% | 323.56 | 329.75 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.61% | +0.48% | 124.60 | 132.37 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.53% | +0.13% | 389.53 | 410.60 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.04% | +0.22% | 304.88 | 316.90 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.01% | +0.30% | 478.36 | 538.04 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.65% | +0.17% | 222.19 | 235.89 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.53% | +0.23% | 165.74 | 170.94 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.45% | +0.29% | 375.12 | 391.58 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.38% | +0.75% | 28.67 | 31.08 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.18% | +0.18% | 195.52 | 208.69 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.18% | +0.32% | 1617.08 | 1809.26 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.05% | +0.23% | 593.26 | 608.50 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.70% · Δ 30m +0.15% · px 388.07 (prev 381.58) → close +0.24% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (product: Chinese startup Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, a powerful and cheaper open-weight AI model that outperforms key US rivals in benchmarks, triggering a negative market reaction for US tech stocks.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, netted, outranked by S1 long NVDA mat 85 (new mat 65)] → close -5.49% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.70% · Δ 30m +0.15% · px 388.07 (prev 381.58) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.