Mon Aug-31 19:04:58
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #824 Mon Jul-27 13:41:37
Why Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon earnings could crush the S&P 500
Analysts warn that upcoming earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta could negatively impact the S&P 500 if they reveal accelerating AI capital expenditures, following a negative market reaction to Alphabet's recent capex guidance.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.58% | +0.09% | 386.36 | 393.98 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -5.47% | -0.52% | 858.59 | 947.60 | |
| peer AAPL | · unclear | PRICED | +3.83% | -0.21% | 333.66 | 339.17 | |
| counterparty GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.28% | +0.20% | 323.56 | 329.75 | |
| PLTR | · unclear | PRICED | +1.62% | +0.34% | 124.60 | 132.37 | |
| TSM | · unclear | PRICED | -1.46% | -0.06% | 389.53 | 410.60 | |
| TSLA | · unclear | PRICED | -1.24% | -0.20% | 304.88 | 316.90 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -1.17% | -0.27% | 478.36 | 538.04 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.71% | -0.18% | 165.74 | 170.94 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.69% | +0.12% | 222.19 | 235.89 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | FRESH | -0.54% | +0.42% | 28.67 | 31.08 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | -0.52% | +0.01% | 375.12 | 391.58 | |
| ASML | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.51% | -0.51% | 1617.08 | 1809.26 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | FRESH | -0.32% | -0.15% | 195.52 | 208.69 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.01% | +0.14% | 593.26 | 608.50 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.58% · Δ 30m +0.09% · px 387.60 (prev 381.58) → close +0.36% |
| S2 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.28% · Δ 30m +0.20% · px 324.92 (prev 317.69) → close +0.59% |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AAPL → close +0.95% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.58% · Δ 30m +0.09% · px 387.60 (prev 381.58) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.