Mon Aug-31 19:04:19
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #818 Mon Jul-27 13:30:42
China accuses US of 'AI hegemonism', threatens countermeasures over potential probes
China's commerce ministry threatened countermeasures against the US following accusations of AI technology theft and potential sanctions on Chinese AI firms, escalating trade tensions in the semiconductor and AI sectors.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.27% | -0.04% | 195.52 | 208.69 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.69% | -0.75% | 858.59 | 947.60 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.92% | +0.05% | 333.66 | 339.17 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.99% | +0.03% | 323.56 | 329.75 | |
| peer TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.60% | -0.18% | 389.53 | 410.60 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.51% | +0.04% | 386.36 | 393.98 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.28% | +0.28% | 124.60 | 132.37 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.26% | +0.02% | 304.88 | 316.90 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.19% | -0.21% | 478.36 | 538.04 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.19% | -0.29% | 28.67 | 31.08 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.12% | -0.72% | 165.74 | 170.94 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.67% | -0.19% | 375.12 | 391.58 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.55% | -0.03% | 222.19 | 235.89 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.51% | -0.36% | 1617.08 | 1809.26 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.12% | +0.09% | 593.26 | 608.50 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (regulatory: China's commerce ministry threatened countermeasures against the US following accusations of AI technology theft and potential sanctions on Chinese AI firms, escalating trade tensions in the semiconductor and AI sectors.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.60% · Δ 30m -0.18% · px 408.92 (prev 415.58) → close -2.59% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short NVDA at close, exit next close (regulatory: China's commerce ministry threatened countermeasures against the US following accusations of AI technology theft and potential sanctions on Chinese AI firms, escalating trade tensions in the semiconductor and AI sectors.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 3308) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-07-28] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ▼ short | 4 | failed |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.