Sun Oct-18 15:17:07
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #657 Thu Jul-23 19:52:26
Cheap AI Models are a Game-Changer
Chinese startup Moonshot AI released a highly efficient and low-cost AI model that challenges US tech giants' pricing power and raises concerns about the return on AI infrastructure spending.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.09% | +0.22% | 379.86 | 390.51 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -14.29% | -0.06% | 316.17 | 351.27 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.73% | -0.27% | 317.18 | 327.20 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.44% | +0.04% | 233.05 | 240.93 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.78% | -0.09% | 168.67 | 175.96 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.15% | +0.20% | 601.39 | 619.60 | |
| peer AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.05% | +0.05% | 527.16 | 557.20 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.00% | -0.15% | 960.22 | 1008.47 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.06% | -0.30% | 207.02 | 211.05 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.75% | +0.81% | 30.11 | 32.51 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.70% | +0.28% | 121.53 | 126.44 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.69% | +0.05% | 388.83 | 398.61 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.68% | +0.06% | 319.88 | 324.23 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.59% | -0.04% | 413.20 | 422.67 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.52% | +0.19% | 1769.46 | 1845.06 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.09% · Δ 30m +0.22% · px 382.19 (prev 390.34) → close -0.14% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -3.05% · Δ 30m +0.05% · px 535.48 (prev 552.33) → close +0.61% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.09% · Δ 30m +0.22% · px 382.19 (prev 390.34) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.