Sun Oct-18 15:03:53
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #5019 Fri Sep-18 18:30:09
The Fed Just Raised Rates for the First Time in Three Years. History Says This Is What Comes Next.
The Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point interest rate hike to combat elevated inflation, marking the start of a new tightening cycle.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.57% | +0.85% | 176.12 | 190.10 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.66% | +0.32% | 38.38 | 40.67 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.03% | +0.11% | 348.49 | 362.28 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.01% | +0.22% | 979.18 | 1017.75 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.69% | +0.18% | 665.16 | 693.51 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.05% | +0.11% | 1627.00 | 1679.92 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.93% | -0.03% | 361.38 | 369.75 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.74% | -0.14% | 251.18 | 255.12 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.72% | +0.19% | 491.83 | 497.90 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.58% | -0.08% | 348.76 | 357.91 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.53% | +0.19% | 332.82 | 337.97 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.49% | -0.12% | 172.66 | 177.97 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.30% | +0.16% | 218.76 | 222.58 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.08% | +0.20% | 428.06 | 434.50 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.01% | +0.03% | 542.18 | 559.41 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +0.29% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.