Sun Oct-18 15:16:21
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #4598 Mon Sep-14 18:00:54
Nasdaq Index: 10-Year Backs Off 5%, but AI Trade Remains Broken
The Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks declined as the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, exacerbating a sell-off in AI-related equities despite a minor intraday bounce.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.82% | +0.18% | 209.25 | 213.36 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.08% | +0.15% | 1575.07 | 1614.82 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.49% | +0.19% | 36.74 | 38.16 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.21% | +0.60% | 904.94 | 931.94 | |
| peer AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.38% | +0.20% | 483.56 | 498.32 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.20% | +0.16% | 344.15 | 351.15 | |
| PLTR | · unclear | PRICED | +3.31% | -0.35% | 167.01 | 174.02 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.84% | +0.32% | 416.10 | 424.45 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | PRICED | +2.72% | +0.47% | 331.91 | 349.72 | |
| MSFT | · unclear | PRICED | +2.56% | +0.61% | 495.10 | 509.52 | |
| META | · unclear | PRICED | +2.39% | +0.44% | 650.31 | 667.71 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.78% | +0.57% | 242.90 | 256.00 | |
| AAPL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.76% | +0.10% | 331.67 | 335.33 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.76% | +0.65% | 170.60 | 181.64 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.82% · Δ 30m +0.18% · px 212.13 (prev 218.29) → close -0.44% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.38% · Δ 30m +0.20% · px 493.52 (prev 516.13) → close +0.08% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.82% · Δ 30m +0.18% · px 212.13 (prev 218.29) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.