Sun Oct-18 15:16:24
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #4596 Mon Sep-14 17:50:43
'Crazy days' and 'silly season' in the stock market raise the prospect of a 'late-stage' AI bubble finally popping | Fortune
Capital Economics warns that the AI trade is a late-stage bubble likely to cause a significant market correction, citing extreme recent volatility in major tech stocks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.59% | +0.53% | 495.10 | 509.52 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.11% | -0.06% | 1575.07 | 1614.82 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.61% | +0.15% | 36.74 | 38.16 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.36% | +0.39% | 904.94 | 931.94 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.34% | +0.16% | 483.56 | 498.32 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.08% | +0.08% | 344.15 | 351.15 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.10% | -0.61% | 167.01 | 174.02 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.80% | +0.11% | 416.10 | 424.45 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.77% | +0.03% | 209.25 | 213.36 | |
| peer GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.62% | +0.36% | 331.91 | 349.72 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.33% | +0.24% | 650.31 | 667.71 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.77% | 0.00% | 331.67 | 335.33 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.70% | +0.47% | 242.90 | 256.00 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.65% | +0.75% | 170.60 | 181.64 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.58% | -0.11% | 357.64 | 365.59 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.59% · Δ 30m +0.53% · px 508.44 (prev 495.59) → close -0.60% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.62% · Δ 30m +0.36% · px 347.38 (prev 338.50) → close +0.47% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.59% · Δ 30m +0.53% · px 508.44 (prev 495.59) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.