Sun Oct-18 15:16:05
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #4584 Mon Sep-14 17:20:16
There Is Now An 83% to 90% Chance the Fed Raises Interest Rates on Sept. 16. Here's What History Says Would Happen to the S&P 500 Index Next.
Market data indicates an 83% to 90% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike on September 16, which historically exerts downward pressure on equity valuations.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.05% | -0.14% | 1575.07 | 1614.82 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.75% | -0.27% | 36.74 | 38.16 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.73% | -0.05% | 904.94 | 931.94 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.49% | +0.48% | 483.56 | 498.32 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.15% | -0.14% | 344.15 | 351.15 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.73% | +1.22% | 167.01 | 174.02 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.90% | -0.14% | 416.10 | 424.45 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.81% | +0.18% | 209.25 | 213.36 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.25% | +0.11% | 331.91 | 349.72 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.09% | +0.29% | 650.31 | 667.71 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.06% | +0.19% | 495.10 | 509.52 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.40% | -0.03% | 170.60 | 181.64 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.16% | -0.24% | 242.90 | 256.00 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.76% | -0.02% | 331.67 | 335.33 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.47% | +0.02% | 357.64 | 365.59 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.47% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.