Sun Oct-18 15:05:46
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #4434 Thu Sep-10 20:20:40
Iran War Forces ECB Into Back-to-Back Hikes as Hormuz Chokes Oil and Internet
The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the second time in three months due to energy inflation and internet disruptions caused by the Iran war, tightening capital conditions for technology investment.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.58% | +0.05% | 971.40 | 1014.29 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.30% | +0.29% | 316.63 | 326.60 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.13% | +0.16% | 502.01 | 516.01 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.53% | -0.14% | 37.25 | 39.15 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.48% | +0.10% | 217.41 | 223.17 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.98% | -0.14% | 165.55 | 169.05 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.92% | -0.25% | 1680.73 | 1715.00 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.50% | -0.05% | 424.38 | 433.55 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.34% | -0.13% | 641.19 | 664.00 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.09% | -0.04% | 171.70 | 181.93 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.04% | -0.53% | 359.65 | 368.44 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.80% | -0.10% | 357.86 | 372.17 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.54% | +0.13% | 327.95 | 333.11 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.32% | -0.19% | 250.30 | 252.96 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.17% | -0.08% | 487.46 | 494.14 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.30% · Δ 30m +0.29% · px 325.73 (prev 315.34) → close +0.09% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.