Mon Aug-31 20:00:17
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #441 Wed Jul-22 14:40:18
Chip companies and other AI winners drag Wall Street lower again, while crude oil prices rise
Escalating US-Iran military conflict and rising oil prices are driving semiconductor and AI stocks lower amid broader market declines and supply chain concerns.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.30% | +0.58% | 204.56 | 214.40 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +18.67% | +5.33% | 28.58 | 32.24 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.59% | +0.76% | 412.25 | 424.96 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.35% | -1.58% | 617.94 | 646.85 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.33% | +0.72% | 1762.04 | 1815.00 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.30% | -1.69% | 386.37 | 399.90 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.20% | -1.52% | 240.00 | 248.50 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.01% | +3.11% | 924.99 | 983.29 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.44% | +3.19% | 527.05 | 560.00 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.41% | +1.14% | 169.25 | 178.13 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.24% | +1.62% | 377.57 | 403.02 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.14% | -0.40% | 325.51 | 349.70 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.05% | -0.07% | 323.58 | 327.90 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> sell NVDA (other: Escalating US-Iran military conflict and rising oil prices are driving semiconductor and AI stocks lower amid broader market declines and supply chain concerns.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted sell but open S1 buy NVDA exiting 2026-07-22] → close +2.64% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: sell NVDA at close, exit next close (other: Escalating US-Iran military conflict and rising oil prices are driving semiconductor and AI stocks lower amid broader market declines and supply chain concerns.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted sell but open S4 buy NVDA exiting 2026-07-23] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.