🚨 Alert #432 Wed Jul-22 14:00:45
Semiconductor companies are projected to deliver 133% earnings growth in Q2 2026, accounting for nearly half of the S&P 500's total earnings gains, with specific highlights on NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, and TSMC.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.91% | +0.18% | 204.56 | 214.40 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +20.02% | -1.38% | 28.58 | 32.24 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +7.45% | +0.10% | 924.99 | 983.29 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +5.48% | -2.18% | 527.05 | 560.00 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.61% | -0.04% | 412.25 | 424.96 | |
| PLTR | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.74% | -0.03% | 123.47 | 133.04 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.32% | -0.20% | 1762.04 | 1815.00 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.18% | -0.01% | 325.51 | 349.70 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.88% | +0.04% | 240.00 | 248.50 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.73% | +0.05% | 386.37 | 399.90 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.33% | -0.13% | 169.25 | 178.13 | |
| peer AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.31% | +0.05% | 323.58 | 327.90 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.20% | -0.08% | 617.94 | 646.85 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.18% | +0.34% | 377.57 | 403.02 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy NVDA (earnings: Semiconductor companies are projected to deliver 133% earnings growth in Q2 2026, accounting for nearly half of the S&P 500's total earnings gains, with specific highlights on NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, and TSMC.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy AAPL (earnings: Semiconductor companies are projected to deliver 133% earnings growth in Q2 2026, accounting for nearly half of the S&P 500's total earnings gains, with specific highlights on NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, and TSMC.) |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy NVDA at close, exit next close (earnings: Semiconductor companies are projected to deliver 133% earnings growth in Q2 2026, accounting for nearly half of the S&P 500's total earnings gains, with specific highlights on NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, and TSMC.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy NVDA exiting 2026-07-23] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 206.44 | 211.79 | +21.40 | closed |
| S3 | AAPL | ▲ long | 3 | 326.71 | 326.67 | -0.12 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S1 | +3.80% | -0.06% | Comparison: The trade worked (+2.6%, max drawdown a negligible -0.06%), but the entry rationale was a broad sector-wide earnings projection for Q2 2026 — not an NVDA-specific catalyst — so this looks more like riding general semi momentum than the "FRESH" signal earning its label. You also gave back a third of the move, exiting at +2.6% after seeing +3.8% unrealized. Improvement: Tighten the FRESH verdict to require a ticker-specific, dated catalyst (e.g., NVDA's own earnings report, guidance, or product news) rather than forward-looking sector forecasts; generic "semis will grow 133%" headlines should be downgraded to STALE/CONTEXT and not trigger entries on their own. Separately, consider a trailing exit once unrealized gain exceeds ~3% to stop leaving profit on the table. |
| AAPL S3 | +0.33% | -1.02% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale is a ticker mismatch — the catalyst cites semiconductor earnings strength (NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MU, TSM), none of which is AAPL, so the "FRESH bullish" verdict was applied to a stock the news doesn't cover. Unsurprisingly, the trade went nowhere (-$0.12, max drawdown -1.02%), because there was no actual catalyst acting on AAPL. Improvement: Add a hard entry gate requiring the traded ticker to be explicitly named in the catalyst text (or mapped via a whitelist of directly-affected tickers); if the news names other companies, either trade those tickers or skip. A sector-adjacency guess should never qualify as FRESH. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.