Mon Aug-31 19:01:49
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #415 Tue Jul-21 21:12:49
Iran War Has Cost $37.5 Billion, Hegseth Tells US Lawmakers
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth informed lawmakers that the ongoing US war against Iran has cost approximately $37.5 billion, highlighting escalating geopolitical tensions and fiscal burdens.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +22.07% | +15.09% | 24.39 | 30.75 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +12.42% | +0.44% | 914.00 | 987.52 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +8.15% | +0.52% | 522.30 | 546.54 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +5.64% | +0.33% | 414.22 | 426.19 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.71% | -0.06% | 1787.97 | 1822.19 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.65% | +0.40% | 370.82 | 383.44 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.94% | -0.20% | 380.86 | 390.09 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.84% | -0.37% | 131.68 | 134.54 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.83% | +0.54% | 170.47 | 175.68 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.80% | -0.06% | 204.23 | 207.50 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.25% | -0.45% | 347.15 | 354.65 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.13% | -0.31% | 395.85 | 401.03 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.04% | -0.02% | 246.50 | 250.30 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.55% | -0.80% | 640.50 | 657.09 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.38% | -0.74% | 322.30 | 329.43 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> sell AAPL (other: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth informed lawmakers that the ongoing US war against Iran has cost approximately $37.5 billion, highlighting escalating geopolitical tensions and fiscal burdens.) |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | AAPL | ▼ short | 3 | failed |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.