verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell AAPL (other: The Pentagon reported that nearly 100 US soldiers were injured in Iranian air strikes over the past two weeks, escalating geopolitical tensions.)
The entry leaned on a broad geopolitical headline with no direct link to AAPL's fundamentals or revenue, and the market agreed — price barely moved (±0.25% max excursion) and the trade bled a small loss to spread/slippage. Macro fear headlines rarely translate into single-name equity moves at this granularity, so the FRESH verdict was technically right about novelty but wrong about tradability.
Concrete fix: add a relevance gate to the entry rule — only trade a ticker if the catalyst names the company, its sector, or a direct supply-chain/revenue exposure; route pure geopolitical macro signals to index or sector instruments (e.g., SPY, defense ETFs) instead, or require a minimum expected-move estimate before sizing any position.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
