Mon Aug-31 20:08:21
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3678 Mon Aug-31 17:24:31
Oil Rises As US Strikes Iran; Warsh's Hawkishness Reverberates; Weak Stock Market Seasonality Ahead
Oil prices rose following U.S. strikes on Iran and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Warsh, triggering broad market selling pressure.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +5.01% | -0.21% | 345.40 | 368.35 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.45% | -0.04% | 164.01 | 170.36 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.41% | -0.15% | 337.36 | 344.99 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.02% | -0.14% | 257.61 | 265.38 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.70% | -0.21% | 313.19 | 320.25 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.17% | -0.12% | 569.63 | 581.16 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.04% | -0.11% | 216.41 | 220.28 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.63% | +0.12% | 36.28 | 37.51 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.59% | -0.06% | 507.85 | 511.96 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.57% | +0.07% | 921.34 | 950.22 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.49% | +0.19% | 1681.11 | 1720.00 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.24% | +0.14% | 463.28 | 471.58 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.11% | +0.16% | 365.56 | 371.25 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.09% | +0.03% | 414.96 | 422.51 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.07% | +0.04% | 183.17 | 187.77 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | inferred short move already absorbed: AAPL -1.70% since prev close → close +0.42% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.