Mon Aug-31 19:02:19
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #358 Tue Jul-21 17:00:16
Chinese startup Moonshot AI rattles global markets with Kimi K3
Chinese startup Moonshot AI launched the Kimi K3 open-source model, triggering a sector-wide sell-off in US tech and semiconductor stocks due to fears that cost-effective alternatives will undermine Western AI infrastructure investments.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.24% | -0.38% | 204.23 | 207.50 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +10.06% | -0.05% | 914.00 | 987.52 | |
| peer AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +5.61% | -0.48% | 522.30 | 546.54 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +5.52% | +0.60% | 24.39 | 30.75 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.33% | -0.18% | 414.22 | 426.19 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.14% | -0.39% | 1787.97 | 1822.19 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.99% | 0.00% | 380.86 | 390.09 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.98% | +0.27% | 170.47 | 175.68 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.92% | -0.11% | 395.85 | 401.03 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.90% | -0.14% | 246.50 | 250.30 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.76% | +0.39% | 347.15 | 354.65 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.66% | +0.11% | 322.30 | 329.43 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.37% | +0.86% | 131.68 | 134.54 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.23% | -0.12% | 640.50 | 657.09 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.24% · Δ 30m -0.38% · px 205.80 (prev 203.28) → close +0.80% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +5.61% · Δ 30m -0.48% · px 531.84 (prev 503.57) → close +2.33% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.24% · Δ 30m -0.38% · px 205.80 (prev 203.28) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.