Mon Aug-31 19:04:12
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3442 Thu Aug-27 14:41:20
Council Post: The Casino Doctrine: With No Declaration, The World Is Already At War
The article highlights escalating geopolitical ambiguity and conflict risks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, posing a significant threat to global semiconductor supply chains centered on TSMC.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.01% | -0.28% | 421.86 | 451.39 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +6.99% | +0.66% | 221.72 | 230.45 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.57% | +1.28% | 359.20 | 374.18 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.49% | -1.36% | 37.58 | 39.22 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.05% | +2.21% | 176.66 | 186.81 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.59% | -1.46% | 255.10 | 260.10 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.98% | -2.64% | 908.33 | 979.50 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.97% | -0.82% | 568.89 | 586.57 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.94% | +0.03% | 309.49 | 315.23 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.88% | +0.79% | 345.50 | 355.51 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.82% | -0.36% | 339.19 | 355.25 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.74% | -1.62% | 1722.10 | 1770.19 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.66% | +0.02% | 491.10 | 505.92 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.57% | -1.39% | 470.37 | 489.20 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.57% | -0.34% | 162.13 | 165.58 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | primary short contradicts tape: TSM +1.01% since prev close → close +1.19% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +6.99% · Δ 30m +0.66% · px 224.31 (prev 209.66) → close +1.69% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | news 8-24h old at decision, floor 4h |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.