🚨 Alert #3415 Thu Aug-27 13:04:07
Nvidia reported quarterly revenue that more than doubled and exceeded forecasts by the largest margin in two years, causing its stock to surge 4% in after-hours trading.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +6.10% | +0.10% | 221.72 | 230.45 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +3.94% | -0.27% | 908.33 | 979.50 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +3.64% | -0.03% | 37.58 | 39.22 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.24% | -0.18% | 421.86 | 451.39 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.09% | -0.39% | 359.20 | 374.18 | |
| peer AMD | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.09% | -0.32% | 470.37 | 489.20 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.92% | 0.00% | 309.49 | 315.23 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.91% | -0.18% | 1722.10 | 1770.19 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.86% | -0.11% | 491.10 | 505.92 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.60% | -0.30% | 162.13 | 165.58 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.39% | +0.04% | 339.19 | 355.25 | |
| PLTR | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.31% | +0.04% | 176.66 | 186.81 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.30% | +0.12% | 568.89 | 586.57 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.26% | +0.03% | 255.10 | 260.10 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +6.10% · Δ 30m +0.10% · px 222.46 (prev 209.66) → close +2.53% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long AMD (earnings: Nvidia reported quarterly revenue that more than doubled and exceeded forecasts by the largest margin in two years, causing its stock to surge 4% in after-hours trading.) |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +6.10% · Δ 30m +0.10% · px 222.46 (prev 209.66) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | AMD | ▲ long | 2 | 477.11 | 475.79 | -2.64 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD S3 | +0.71% | -1.43% | Signal: The bullish sympathy call didn't play out — AMD drifted down over the hold, and the best unrealized gain was only +0.71%, so even a perfect exit captured little; the predicted repricing largely failed to materialize in AMD. Timing: The stock was already +1.09% on the day at decision time, consistent with some of the Nvidia-sympathy move being priced in before entry, though the data here can't fully separate "already moved" from "never moved much" — note the fill (477.11) sits oddly below the prev close (480.93) given the +1.09% context, which the data doesn't explain. Exit: The -0.28% realized loss landed between the +0.71% best and -1.43% worst — the exit was unremarkable, neither capturing the small peak nor riding to the bottom. Dominant factor: weak signal — the sympathy thesis simply didn't produce a tradeable move in AMD. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.