Sun Oct-18 15:14:05
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3350 Wed Aug-26 17:10:12
Kevin Warsh Just Got Another Reason to Raise Rates in September
Rising July PCE inflation data has increased the market-implied probability of a September interest rate hike to 44%, creating potential headwinds for equity valuations.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.80% | +0.10% | 343.38 | 350.50 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.71% | -0.28% | 350.42 | 362.13 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.60% | -0.84% | 37.05 | 38.59 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.56% | -0.14% | 340.28 | 347.50 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.46% | -0.30% | 563.60 | 597.00 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.36% | +0.25% | 170.23 | 179.51 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.35% | -0.40% | 206.48 | 220.50 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.16% | +0.22% | 309.37 | 315.24 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.87% | -0.26% | 258.35 | 262.85 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.85% | +0.65% | 158.86 | 164.92 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.75% | -0.49% | 473.00 | 490.04 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.60% | -0.47% | 919.61 | 976.50 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.55% | -0.09% | 487.23 | 498.25 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.53% | -0.60% | 414.93 | 424.90 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.40% | -0.49% | 1732.77 | 1785.00 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | inferred short contradicts tape: AAPL +1.16% since prev close → close +0.09% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.