Mon Aug-31 19:03:33
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3282 Tue Aug-25 19:10:27
Warsh Keynote at Jackson Hole: AI Capex Is Breaking His Rate-Hold Case
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to address Jackson Hole amid concerns that massive AI-driven corporate bond issuance by hyperscalers is driving up long-term Treasury yields and complicating the disinflationary thesis.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.47% | -0.12% | 345.69 | 350.72 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +8.93% | +0.62% | 35.75 | 38.75 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.41% | -0.03% | 466.91 | 482.30 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.81% | -0.03% | 210.10 | 214.28 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.72% | -0.09% | 172.10 | 179.68 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.26% | -0.11% | 414.52 | 418.56 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.24% | -0.39% | 921.02 | 944.54 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.14% | -0.11% | 350.00 | 356.58 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.08% | 0.00% | 562.22 | 570.34 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.64% | -0.40% | 159.32 | 161.62 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.60% | +0.11% | 259.90 | 263.76 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.50% | 0.00% | 483.77 | 492.30 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.43% | -0.07% | 355.64 | 363.55 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.42% | -0.22% | 308.22 | 311.39 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.23% | -0.12% | 1736.57 | 1768.27 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short GOOGL (other: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to address Jackson Hole amid concerns that massive AI-driven corporate bond issuance by hyperscalers is driving up long-term Treasury yields and complicating the disinflationary thesis.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, netted, outranked by S2 long GOOGL mat 85 (new mat 65)] → close -0.03% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred short contradicts tape: NVDA +1.81% since prev close → close +0.39% |
| S4 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short GOOGL at close, exit next close (other: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to address Jackson Hole amid concerns that massive AI-driven corporate bond issuance by hyperscalers is driving up long-term Treasury yields and complicating the disinflationary thesis.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 12960) for S4 GOOGL exiting 2026-08-26] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.