Mon Aug-31 19:03:34
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3071 Fri Aug-21 20:10:40
The bond market is sending a distress signal. Here's why it matters
Rising US Treasury yields driven by inflation concerns and AI infrastructure debt competition are increasing borrowing costs for technology companies.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +6.01% | +0.37% | 348.14 | 365.91 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.85% | -0.11% | 173.00 | 181.55 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.84% | +0.70% | 36.63 | 37.47 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.41% | +0.21% | 341.47 | 346.07 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.00% | +0.09% | 1742.38 | 1771.53 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.91% | -0.12% | 307.18 | 312.35 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.87% | +0.41% | 365.20 | 373.98 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.85% | +0.16% | 417.05 | 423.98 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.77% | 0.00% | 214.72 | 218.48 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.72% | +0.10% | 533.74 | 553.75 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.68% | +0.34% | 463.05 | 475.79 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.54% | +0.24% | 959.33 | 988.00 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.41% | +0.30% | 468.39 | 485.87 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.28% | +0.41% | 257.39 | 262.04 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.17% | +0.45% | 159.40 | 162.85 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +0.27% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.